Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, March 25th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following Iran headlines that give a glimpse of hope that the conflict may end in the near future. Stocks like the news also, pushing the Dow higher by 321 points and the Nasdaq up 240 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (4.33%), which with gains late yesterday should allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be lower than Tuesday’s early pricing by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

7/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.33%

321

Dow

46,445

240

NASDAQ

22,002

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Geopolitical/Financial Issues

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. We are seeing the markets react to news of a 15-point plan from the U.S. that has been delivered to Iran. President Trump said that the U.S. and Iran are in negotiations, but Iran hasn’t clearly confirmed that. Still, since the plan has been offered, the markets are taking it as progress towards ending the war. That said, this has been a rollercoaster of positive and negative headlines over the past couple of weeks, so we have to be prepared for what the next one may say.

Low

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Today’s only relevant scheduled event is the 1:00 PM ET results announcement from the 5-year Treasury Note auction. Good news for the broader bond market and mortgage pricing would be a strong sale, meaning there was a high level of demand from investors. A weak interest in the securities could lead to upward pressure in bonds this afternoon, possibly causing a slight increase in rates during midafternoon trading. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 7-year Notes are sold.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow brings us the release of last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to show 210,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed, up from the previous week’s 205,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign of employment sector weakness that makes bonds more appealing to investors. In other words, the larger the number of claims, the better the news for rates.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

Also tomorrow is a handful of Fed-member speeches that will be watched. They all come during afternoon and evening hours, so we may not see a reaction to any surprises until Friday morning’s open. We aren’t expecting to see a strong reaction to the speeches, but with so little in terms of economic data scheduled this week, we could see a minor response to something that may not usually impact bond trading.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.