Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, September 6th

This holiday-shortened week brings us just four monthly economic reports and two Treasury auctions that we will be watching. Two of the economic releases are labeled highly important since they will help us gauge inflationary metrics in the economy. It starts light with nothing of importance scheduled for Tuesday or Wednesday morning. The financial and mortgage markets will be closed tomorrow for the Labor Day holiday, meaning there will be no update to this report.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Scheduled activities begin Wednesday afternoon when the results of the day’s 10-year Treasury Note auction are announced at 1:00 PM ET. We also have a 30-year Bond auction happening Thursday. These sales will give us a good indication of investor appetite for long-term debt, which is relevant because mortgage rates are based on long-term securities. If sales draw a strong demand from investors, we could see bonds improve during afternoon trading those days, possibly leading to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the securities may lead to higher mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Producer Price Index (PPI)

August's Producer Price Index (PPI) will begin this week's economic releases at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the wholesale level of the economy and can have a significant impact on the financial and mortgage markets. There are two readings in the report- the overall and core data. Core figures will draw more attention as they exclude more volatile food and energy prices. Current forecasts show a 0.4% rise in the monthly overall reading with core data up 0.3%. The weaker the readings, especially year-over-year, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Thursday morning will also bring us August's Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors, but at 10:00 AM ET. They are expected to announce a small decline in home resales, pointing to weakness in the housing sector. A soft housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult. Therefore, good news for mortgage rates would be a large drop in sales.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to be posted at 8:30 AM ET Friday morning. It is the sister release to Thursday’s PPI, giving us readings of inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy rather than the wholesale level. As with the PPI, there are also two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are expecting to see a 0.4% increase in the overall CPI and a 0.2% rise in the core data. Stronger than expected readings would be bad news for rates and would raise the possibility of the Fed bumping key short-term interest rates higher at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for September will close out this week's calendar late Friday morning. This index gives us an indication of consumer confidence in their own financial situations, projecting consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer's confidence in their own financial situation is rising, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. But if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that sizable purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and therefore impacts the financial markets. It is expected to show a stronger reading than August's 51.7. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.

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Unknown

none

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week for rates due to the influence the CPI carries in the markets, but surprises in Thursday's PPI could create a big move in the markets also. The best candidate for calmest day is Wednesday since the markets may show some volatility Tuesday after the holiday weekend. We should see the most movement in rates Thursday and/or Friday with other days likely to yield minor changes in pricing. Keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future since they can get active without warning.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.