Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, May 31th

This week has six relevant monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled for release with two of them considered to be key data and are expected to cause a noticeable move in rates. There is at least one report scheduled for release four of the five days, starting and ending with highly important economic reports. Also scheduled is a periodic Fed report. We will also be looking for an update to the proposed peace deal with Iran that is waiting for President Trump’s decision. News of an accepted deal from both sides should fuel a bond rally and lower mortgage rates.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Unknown

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Scheduled activities start tomorrow with the 10:00 AM ET release of May's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). It is one of this week's two highly important reports that can heavily influence mortgage rates. Analysts pay close attention to this data because it measures manufacturer sentiment about current business conditions. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Forecasts show a 53.2 reading in this month's release, up from April's 52.7 meaning that sentiment strengthened a little this month. A much lower reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while an increase could contribute to higher rates tomorrow.

Medium

Unknown

ADP Employment

May's ADP Employment report is the first of Wednesday morning's three economic reports that we will be watching. The 8:15 AM ET release tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using ADP's payroll processing clients as a base. While it does draw attention because it is related to the employment sector, it is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows later in the week. Still, because we sometimes see a reaction to the report, it is on our calendar. Traders are expecting it to show that 114,000 private sector jobs were added to the economy during the month. The smaller the increase in jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

ISM Service Index

Wednesday’s second release will come from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who will release their non-manufacturing index (aka service index) for May at 10:00 AM ET. This is the sister report of tomorrow's ISM manufacturing index with this version tracking business executive opinions on conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. It is expected to show a reading of 53.6 that would be unchanged from April. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much lower than predicted reading.

Medium

Unknown

Factory Orders

April's Factory Orders data will be Wednesday morning’s final economic release, which is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report. The difference is this release also includes orders for non-durable goods such as food and clothing. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much of a change in rates since a good part of the orders were posted in the previous version. Current forecasts are calling for a 4.3% jump in new orders. A decline would be considered favorable even though any impact on rates will likely be minimal.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Beige Book

There is also a Wednesday afternoon event that may influence rates. That is the 2:00 PM ET release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions throughout the U.S. via business contacts in each Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If there is a reaction in the bond market or mortgage pricing, it will happen during mid-afternoon hours Wednesday.

Medium

Unknown

Productivity and Costs (Quarterly)

In addition to the weekly unemployment update, Thursday also has revised 1st quarter Productivity and Costs data set for release at 8:30 AM ET. This data measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. It is also considered to be moderately important because it helps us measure wage inflation. Many analysts believe that the economy can grow with low inflationary pressures when productivity is high. Thursday's update is predicted to show productivity stood at a 0.8% annual pace. This is one of the few reports where a higher reading is considered favorable for mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Employment Situation

The week's economic calendar will come to an end early Friday morning when May's governmental Employment report is posted at 8:30 AM ET. This extremely important data will give us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average earnings change. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate hold at April's 4.3% for May with approximately 96,000 jobs added during the month and a 0.3% increase in earnings. A higher than expected unemployment rate and a much smaller increase in payrolls would be favorable news for mortgage rates. Bonds are particularly sensitive to the earnings increase also, meaning the smaller the rise in that number, the better the news for rates.

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Unknown

none

Overall, Friday is the most important day for rates by default since it has the almighty Employment report scheduled. Tomorrow may also be noticeably active with the ISM index being announced. Tuesday is a good candidate as calmest day unless there are new headlines regarding Iran. With so much going on this week, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.