Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, July 19th

This week has only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest, in addition to a Treasury auction midweek and plenty of corporate earnings releases each day. We should see rates remain a bit calmer than last week because none of the events on this week’s calendar are considered to be highly important. There is nothing scheduled for tomorrow or Tuesday, leaving geopolitical news to drive trading the first couple days.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The first scheduled event is the 20-year Treasury Bond auction results announcement at 1:00 PM ET Wednesday. A strong demand for the securities could help improve bonds and lead to slightly lower mortgage rates during afternoon trading because mortgage rates are based on long-term debt also. On the other hand, if investor interest in the sale was lackluster, we could see bonds weaken and mortgage rates move higher Wednesday afternoon.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

June's New Home Sales report will be posted late Friday morning. This report gives us a little insight into the housing sector, but tracks sales of newly constructed homes instead of resales. These transactions make up such a small portion of all sales in the U.S. that the report usually doesn't have much of an impact on mortgage pricing. With so little scheduled this week, we could see a bit stronger of a response to any surprise in the report than we usually would. Forecasts have sales rising, hinting at housing strength. An unexpected decline would technically be favorable for bonds and mortgage rates, but we are not expecting to see a noticeable move in rates due to this data.

Low

Unknown

Corporate Earnings

Corporate earnings season is gaining momentum with a large number of companies posting results this week. Generally speaking, good news for stocks is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. If some of the big-named companies report disappointing earnings and/or forward guidance, stocks will likely move lower, creating an opportunity for investors move funds into bonds. Under this scenario, bond prices will rise and their yields will decline. That would be good news for mortgage shoppers because mortgage rates tend to track bond yields.

Medium

Unknown

Iran War Headlines

Overall, no day stands out as a good candidate for most important day for mortgage rates because of the extremely light calendar. That said, a noticeable increase in rates could be coming tomorrow due to headlines from the Middle East, which include deaths of U.S. servicemen and the escalating military action going back and forth this weekend. We have already seen gas prices rise with oil prices over the past week, igniting inflation concerns again that are a negative influence on bonds.

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Unknown

none

Despite the lack of key or highly influential events to drive trading, it would still be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future since they can get active without notice, especially during this geopolitical environment. We are not expecting to see big moves in rates this week, but the possibility always exists.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.