Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, June 25th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite mostly economic news that is generally unfriendly to bonds. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 560 points and the Nasdaq down 157 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32(4.37%), which with yesterday’s unexpected afternoon rally should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement late yesterday, you should see a smaller improvement this morning.

4/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.37%

560

Dow

52,409

157

NASDAQ

25,319

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 5-year Treasury Note auction was uneventful with the benchmarks pointing to an average demand from investors compared to other recent sales. The 1:00 PM ET results announcement failed to derail the day’s rally, but didn’t contribute to it either. The lack of a reaction didn’t come as a surprise since these are shorter-term securities and mortgage rates are based on long-term debt, especially since the sale wasn’t overly strong or soft. We have a similar auction taking place today with 7-year Notes being sold. Results of it will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET. We are not expecting a noticeable impact on rates from today’s auction either.

High

Negative

Inflation News

The most important of this morning’s batch of economic releases was May’s Personal Income and Outlays report that showed inflation rose last month and year-over-year, but at a pace that matched expectations. The overall May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.4% while the more important core PCE that excludes volatile food and energy costs increases 0.3%. Their annual rate rose from 3.8% to 4.1% and 3.3% to 3.4% respectively. These readings show inflation is still moving away from the Fed’s preferred rate of 2.0% annually. However, the fact that there were no upside surprises in the data is allowing for a positive reaction to the news.

Medium

Negative

Personal Income and Outlays

Other headline numbers in this report were not favorable. They showed income and spending rose 0.7% last month to exceed forecasts in both readings. Rapidly rising income means consumers have more money to spend and that was reflected in the stronger than thought spending number also. Both of these are signs of economic strength that make them bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. That said, the PCE inflation readings draw much more attention in the markets than these two numbers.

High

Positive

Durable Goods Orders

This morning’s second release was May's Durable Goods Orders report that revealed a 4.5% decline in new orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. This data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, so the moderate variance from the 4.0% decline that was expected is not nearly as meaningful as it is in most other reports. We are still labeling the headline number as good news for rates even though it likely is making just a small contribution to this morning’s bond trading and no impact on mortgage pricing.

Low

Negative

GDP Rev 2 (month after Rev 1)

We also got data that showed the economy was stronger than previously thought during the first three months of the year. The second revision to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading came in at up 2.1%. This was a noticeable increase from the previous estimate of 1.6%. Typically, news of stronger economic activity is considered unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates. However, with this data being aged now and the current quarter’s reading coming next month, today’s report has had no impact on today’s mortgage pricing.

Medium

Negative

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

And finally, the weekly unemployment update revealed only 215,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made last week, down from the previous week’s revised 227,000 initial filings. Analysts were expecting to see 224,000 initial claims. Because declining claims are a sign of strength in the employment sector, we have to label this release bad news for both bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, it is just a weekly snapshot that hasn’t drawn much attention this morning.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

The University of Michigan will close out this week's economic calendar late tomorrow morning when they update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for June. This index gives us a sign of consumer willingness to spend. Waning confidence in personal financial and employment situations usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending, restricting economic growth. On the other hand, gains in sentiment means consumers are more likely to spend money and consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. A large downward revision would be considered good news for bonds and rates. Forecasts show the index coming in near the initial reading of 48.9 from earlier this month.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.