Thursday, November 13th
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the government shutdown ending. Stocks are also in negative ground with the Dow down 113 points and the Nasdaq down 270 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (4.10%), which should cause a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates compared to Wednesday’s early pricing.
10/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.10%
113
Dow
48,140
270
NASDAQ
23,135
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Low
Negative
Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction did not go as well as hoped. The benchmarks from the sale indicated investors were not as interested in this auction as they were in other recent sales. This could mean investor appetite for long-term debt is waning. Bonds had rallied a little during morning and midday trading before seeming to run out of steam after results were announced at 1:00 PM ET. We saw a small negative reaction to the auction announcement, but it wasn’t enough to erase the earlier gains in bonds. Accordingly, we are labeling the sale as neutral to slightly negative for mortgage rates.
High
Unknown
There is no relevant economic data set for release today or tomorrow despite the government officially reopening. It will take some time for government workers to compile the delayed reports before releasing them to the public. Some analysts are questioning whether or not how accurate a few of the reports will be and if they will be posted at all. There is some expectation that September’s Employment report will be released soon since it was likely prepared before the shutdown prevented its release in early October. We will be watching for updates on the revised release schedule and will incorporate them into our daily reports once they have been announced.
Medium
Unknown
In lieu of data, the bond market is looking toward the handful of Fed speeches taking place today and the 30-year Treasury Bond auction for trading direction. None of the speeches are expected to be about hot topic issues such as inflation, the economy or monetary policy plans, meaning they likely won’t have an impact on today’s mortgage rates. The auction results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for the bond market and mortgage pricing. A strong demand from investors could lead to afternoon bond strength and possibly a small intraday improvement to mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.