Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, April 16th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following conflicting results from this morning’s relatively minor economic data. Stocks are showing losses of 22 points in the Dow and 50 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (4.27%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Wednesday’s early pricing. There may be some lenders that reflect a slight improvement in pricing, but it should be a modest change.

2/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.27%

22

Dow

48,440

50

NASDAQ

23,695

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Neutral

Fed Beige Book

Yesterday afternoon’s release of the Fed Beige Book report showed no major surprises but did make clear that the Iran war and resulting spike in oil and gas costs are having a negative impact on the economy. While ten of the Fed’s twelve regional districts reported slight to modest growth in economic activity (two reporting declines), many businesses said the higher oil and fuel costs are causing increases to freight and shipping costs along with products related to plastics and fertilizers. This could lead to higher prices for consumers, especially if the elevated oil costs remain near current levels. The uncertainty of what the future brings is causing businesses to delay making capital investments and preventing the hiring of additional employees other than to fill current openings. Again, these were expected impacts from the war last month. Bonds showed little reaction to the 2:00 PM ET release, meaning the report had no influence on mortgage rates.

Medium

Negative

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Last week’s unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET. They revealed only 207,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made last week. This was lower than the 215,000 that was expected and a decline from the previous week’s revised 218,000 initial filings. A decline in new claims is a sign of strength in the employment sector, making this weekly update bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Positive

Industrial Production

March's Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET closed this week’s economic calendar. It showed a 0.5% decline in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities when it was expected to rose 0.1%. The headline decline appears to be very good news since it portrays weakness in the manufacturing sector. However, a sizable upward revision to February’s production is skewing March’s number. March’s output seems weak compared to an overly strong February. Accordingly, we aren’t seeing the report have much of an impact on this morning’s bond trading.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

There is no relevant economic data or other related events scheduled for tomorrow. We have a couple of Fed-member speaking engagements to watch though. The only that stands out as the best chance to affect rates is Fed Governor Waller’s speech at 2:00 PM ET. He is speaking at Auburn University in Alabama with a topic listed as Economic Outlook. If we see a reaction to his words, it will come during midafternoon hours.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.