Friday, July 17th
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following mixed economic data and early stock weakness. The Dow has rebounded from heavy premarket trading losses to now stand up 35 points, but the Nasdaq is still down 307 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (4.52%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.
8/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.52%
35
Dow
52,587
307
NASDAQ
25,574
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Low
Neutral
There were three pieces of economic data posted this morning, starting with June’s Housing Starts report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed a much stronger than expected 19% increase in new home groundbreakings last month. The headline number appears to be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because it insinuates major growth in the new home portion of the housing sector. However, the large overall rise in starts is skewed by a 76% jump in groundbreakings of multi-family housing, such as apartments and condos. Mortgage rates are more reactive to single-family data, which slipped 0.2% last month to indicate slightly slowing activity. Accordingly, we are labeling the report neutral to slightly favorable for rates.
Medium
Positive
Today’s second release came at 9:15 AM ET when June's Industrial Production data was posted. This data measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It showed a 0.1% rise in production, falling just short of the 0.2% increase that was expected. The report points to modest growth in manufacturing and hasn’t had an impact on this morning’s bond trading or mortgage pricing.
Medium
Negative
Closing out this week’s calendar was the release of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 54.4 that makes the report bad news for mortgage rates because forecasts had it at 51.3 after June’s revised reading stood at 49.5. The increase means surveyed consumers felt better about their own finances than many had thought and are more likely to spend money in the immediate future. Bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, not when activity is stronger.
---
Unknown
Next week has very little scheduled that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. There appears to be only a minor housing report and a Treasury auction listed at the moment. Corporate earnings season gets into full swing next week with several big-named companies set to announce their results. These tend to influence stocks much more than bonds, but large losses in stocks can draw more funds into bonds to help push rates slightly lower. We will also be looking for geopolitical headlines to come into play, particularly from the weekend since Monday has nothing scheduled that we will be watching. Look for details on next week’s few activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.