Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, October 13th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory to start the new week with an improvement in mortgage rates. Stocks are mixed but calm with the Dow up 30 points and the Nasdaq down 31 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (5.22%), which with Friday’s late gains should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point if compared to Friday’s early pricing. The bond market was closed yesterday for the Columbus / Indigenous Peoples' Day Holiday.

5/32

Bonds

30 yr - 5.22%

30

Dow

51,881

31

NASDAQ

27,214

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

The National Association of Realtors released their moderately important September Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET this morning to kick-off this week’s calendar. They announced a 1.5% increase in sales compared to August’s downwardly revised number after forecasts had sales slipping a bit. The revision to August’s sales is skewing the monthly change for September, but because the number of sales is still higher than what was predicted, we have to label the report unfavorable for mortgage rates. Fortunately, this report doesn’t carry a high level of importance and bonds were looking to open the day in positive ground long before the report was released.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Data influence rises quickly tomorrow when September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is posted at 8:30 AM ET. This release will give us highly important inflation readings at the consumer level of the economy. The overall CPI reading is expected to have risen 0.6% last month with gas prices spiking while the more important core reading that excludes volatile food and energy costs is predicted to be up 0.2%. Both are expected to be stronger than August’s year-over-year pace. This would mean inflation was stronger last month than in August. Since bonds are less appealing to investors during times of rising inflation, lower than forecasted readings will likely push bond yields and mortgage rates lower tomorrow.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Beige Book

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report that summarizes economic activity through the eyes of business contacts within each Fed region is tomorrow’s second release. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings when making monetary policy decisions, so look for a potential reaction during mid-afternoon trading. It probably will not cause a major sell-off in the stock or bond markets, but the 2:00 PM ET release is still worth watching as it could draw enough of a reaction to change rates slightly.

High

Unknown

Retail Sales

Over the final two days of the week we will get three more monthly economic reports along with the weekly unemployment update. Two of those monthly reports are also considered highly important and have the potential to move rates noticeably (Thursday’s Producer Price Index and Retail Sales report). Headlines from the Middle East and their impact on oil prices may also come into play the remaining the days of the week.

Low

Unknown

Stock Influences

Also worth noting is that corporate earnings season is starting this week, when big-named companies begin releasing their quarterly and annual earnings reports. Strong earnings are good news for stocks and bad news for bonds. Generally speaking, if earnings miss expectations, stocks should lose ground while bonds rally and mortgage rates should move slightly lower. With a number of well-known large banking and financial companies posting this week, stocks could also have a moderate influence on bond trading and possibly mortgage pricing on the days without the key reports being released.

High

Unknown

None

Overall, tomorrow is the most important day of the week for rates due to the significance the CPI carries in the markets, but Thursday is a close second if the CPI doesn’t show any surprises. The best candidate for calmest day is Friday. Afternoon swings in the bond market and mortgage pricing have become the norm lately, even with little news to drive trading. In other words, we could see morning and afternoon move in rates multiple days again this week. Accordingly, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.